By now many of you have heard that "a 28 year old has beaten a potential candidate for House Speaker in NY's Congressional District 14's primary election." That is a lesson that AsAm voters in CA and elsewhere must learn to build our political clout.
What Happened In NY's 14th Cong. District
Democratic Primary
|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 15,897 | 57.5% |
| Joseph Crowley, incumbent | 11,761 | 42.5 |
27,658 votes, 98% reporting (440 of 449 precincts)
The total estimated number of registered Democrats in that Cong. District is 160,000. So Ms. Ocasio-Cortez won by having only 10% to these voters
supporting her. Now she is in the national news!
The Lesson? The turnout in any primary election is always much smaller than the general election. Victory often goes to the one who
(1) is willing to challenge a "SURE WINNER", because the primary turnout is guaranteed to be low;
(2) can generate higher emotional connection with potential supporters, &
(3) knows how to drive out his/her supporters.
Remember, a "sure winner" doesn't work as hard, and may also be rusty on the campaign trail. His supporters are likely to sit home, as was true in the above election, when the turnout was less than 20%.
How is that relevant to AsAm voters in CA?
AsAms represent 8% of the CA voters in a General Election. So if a CA statewide primary's turnout is only 1/3 of the general election, while our 8% all turn out, then the 8% become 24%. If the 24% cast a bloc vote, we can almost control the outcome of that primary. The above scenario applies to any presidential primaries in 2020.
In addition, let's think in terms of winning Congressional primaries. CA has many Cong. Districts having 30% or more AsAm voters. Those districts also have very powerful incumbents considered as "SURE WINNERS" who are rusty, since they have not faced an opponent in years. If the primary turnout is only 1/2 that of the general, then the AsAm 30% in those districts becomes 60%. If we also cast a bloc vote, we will be kingmakers. So don't whine, DO!
Political opportunities are plentiful. For those of us who have the heart to win equal opportunity for AsAms, we first need to understand the mathematics of elections, then know how to campaign and finally have the COURAGE to face the battles.
S. B. Woo
